Migration out of California spiked about five years ago in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. Remote work freed many employees to live somewhere cheaper while keeping their California job. In more recent years the state has still lost people to the rest of the country even as the number moving out has eased. Californians favor nearby states over states farther away and high-income Californians show a marked preference for low-tax states. But as prices rise outside California, those moving out have become more selective about where they move.

While many factors drive migration, the simplest are proximity and size: people move to bigger places over smaller ones, and to closer states over those more distant. California has a substantial net loss to Texas (21,438) and Florida (12,645) in part because they have large populations to begin with.  And relative to the destination state’s population, California has a disproportionate loss to Nevada (13 per 1000 residents) and Idaho (10 per 1000 residents), in part because they are close. Other states receiving large numbers of Californians include the nearby states of Washington (17,475), Arizona (14,465), and Oregon (9,064). (Net flows to or from most other states are too small to distinguish from zero, including almost all states with net outflows to California.)

Migration patterns have changed very little between 2023 and 2024 (the latest year with Census data). Alaska and Montana have experienced the largest changes in migration per 1000 residents. But even those shifts were small, and the total migration to and from each state was limited. Few other states have experienced changes that fall outside the margin of error.

High-income Californians continue to favor states without income taxes; this is consistent with the idea that they gain the most financially by leaving California’s progressive income tax structure behind. That said, the gap has shrunk and is only marginally statistically significant. Other income groups have similar flows to states with and without income taxes. However, because there are only nine states without income taxes (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming), these states are drawing more Californians at all income levels relative to the other 40 states.

In the last few years low-income Californians have become more likely—and high-income Californians less likely—to move to states with cheaper housing prices (those with median prices in the bottom half nationally). This partly reflects the spread of the housing crisis to other states. Prices have increased everywhere, but especially in states that had higher prices already. It is no longer enough just to leave California: movers must be increasingly sensitive to costs in the places they move to.

Overall, migration out of California has settled into a relatively stable pattern that favors nearby states and states without income taxes, but with a growing discernment around prices in destination states as well. The steady stream of departures promises to gradually reshape the Golden State—and the nation as a whole.

Earlier versions of this post were published on April 13, 2023, February 13, 2024, and March 5, 2025.